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6 things you need to know about the US election

1. Why do US presidential elections take so long?

Early in the year of the presidential election, Iowa holds the first caucus and New Hampshire the first primary. These two polls follow months of campaigning, while there will be a further five months or so between the firing of the starting gun in Iowa and the point at which both parties have officially selected their candidate. Once that point is reached, the rest of the summer and autumn is spent campaigning before the election itself on 8 November. Long campaigns go some way to explaining the cost of US elections. In the 2012 presidential campaign, Mitt Romney is estimated to have spent the equivalent of $13 per vote, as did Hillary Clinton in her 2008 bid to win the Democratic nomination.

Source: Washington Post

2. What’s the difference between a caucus and a primary?

Outside the United States, most people would be hard pressed to tell the difference, but a primary is run by the state while the political parties run caucuses. A primary is more like a traditional election with ballots cast at polling stations and a broad range of voters taking part.

Caucuses take place in churches, schools and even people’s homes. The meetings will often discuss candidates before voting and may deal with other political party business. Because of this, caucuses tend to involve more ideologically committed party members and far fewer people turn out. Both parties have a set number of delegates – party officials in each state who ultimately get to choose the official candidate at the party’s national convention later in the year. Either caucuses or primaries are used to decide how many delegates each person hoping to secure the nomination gets. The person with the most delegates will win the nomination.

3. Why does Iowa go first?

In 1972, Iowa Democrats scheduled their caucus in January, which was unusually early. Various reasons have been given for this, from a change to the date of the national convention that year to an effort to favour a local candidate who was considering a run.

Whatever the reason, the Iowa Democratic caucuses moved ahead of the New Hampshire primary, which had traditionally been the nation’s first. The Republicans soon followed suit. To hold on to its kingmaker role and retain the economic boost of hosting thousands of campaign workers and journalists, the Iowa State legislature has added a section to the state code that requires that the caucus be held eight days prior to any other caucus or primary. A recent poll showed the strength of feeling Iowans have towards their special status, with nearly 70% saying the state should continue to go first.

4. Are Democratic and Republican caucuses the same?

No.

Republican caucuses involve a straightforward ballot for a preferred candidate. The votes are counted by the caucus chair and the winner is announced. There is no minimum threshold a candidate must reach. The winner is simply the candidate with the most votes in each caucus and delegates are allocated on this basis.

The Democrats make things a little more complicated. Caucus-goers physically stand in different areas of the room to show their support for a particular candidate. This is called aligning. During a 30-minute alignment period, people work the room to try to convince others to support their candidate. Supporters of candidates who do not meet the „viable“ threshold, usually about 15% of those present, can either join another candidate’s group or try and encourage others to join them. The number of delegates each viable candidate gets will depend on the strength of their support.

5. Do the caucuses usually predict the eventual nominee?

For the Democrats, yes. For the Republicans, no.

Most recently, Barack Obama’s victory over Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucus in 2008 did much to propel him to the White House. In 2004, John Kerry beat Howard Dean and went on to win the Democratic nomination.

In fact, since 1976, Iowa Democrats have got it wrong only twice: in 1992 when Iowa native Tom Harkin won the caucuses and in 1988 when Dick Gephardt from neighbouring Missouri won. Since 1980, Iowa Republicans have accurately predicted the official nominee only twice: Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000. In every other caucus, Iowa Republicans chose candidates that did not go on to get enough support to secure the nomination.

One reason for this is that Iowa Republicans are seen as more conservative than the national average with a tendency to go for more socially conservative candidates.

6. What are the main challenges the winner will face?

After years of battling to secure their party’s nomination and then the popular vote, whoever wins the presidential election in November will find that the really hard work starts when they arrive in the Oval Office.

Income inequality, lack of infrastructure investment and rising health care costs are all pressing issues in the US economy. Keeping the country competitive is also a major challenge, with China and other emerging economies continuing to put pressure on the more established nations. The World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Report placed the US at number 3 in the world ranking, but maintaining that position is going to be tough.

Sustaining robust economic growth in an environment of slowing global growth will be a significant challenge, whoever finally makes it to the White House.

A longer version of this article originally appeared on the Forum Agenda, the blog of the World Economic Forum. 

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